Analisis Kontingensi Terhadap Probabilitas Blackout Pada Jaringan Sistem Tenaga Menggunakan Model Bertingkat

Abstract

Electrical power system network is a very complex network which consist several component that interact between one and another. When one component operate exceed its limitation then protection system will react and that component will be cut off from the system. Component could also be cut off from the system because of malfunction, demage that cause by aging, fire, weather, improper maintenance and incorrect setting. The system power flow can be calculated by using DC power flow approximation to find voltage degree and active power that flow in the line. Blackout system as cause of cascade process in twelve bus system was started by load increased (D) in the system so that it will trigger overload in the network. With load increment (P) after load shedding is not out of the line margin of the system. D and P values in model being normalized by [ 0,1] range so it will make probability variables which are d and p. The number of load shedding in cascade model in particular level was shown by the blackout probability at that point given by using Probability density function (Pdf), and Cumulative density function (Cdf) approach.

Keyword: Blackout probability, DC power flow, cascade model, Pdf, Cdf be known from spike thats occurs on wavelet decomposition.